The 151st Kentucky Derby is set to be exciting, especially following last year’s dramatic three-way photo finish. This year’s field presents intriguing opportunities for those looking to place bets. The standout favorite is Journalism, who possesses the highest Beyer speed rating of 108, achieved in his prep races. However, concerns exist about his ability to adapt to the larger Derby field of 19 horses, as he faced smaller groups in previous races.
There’s a notable presence of early-speed horses in this Derby, which raises concerns about a potential pace meltdown. Several contenders, like Citizen Bull and Neoequos, may push each other too hard, risking burnout and paving the way for late closers like Sandman or Sovereignty to capitalize on any mistakes.
Bob Baffert, the renowned trainer returning after a suspension, has both Citizen Bull and a scratched entry, Rodriguez. Citizen Bull, despite the challenging inside post position, remains a horse to watch due to Baffert’s keen expertise.
Another noteworthy contender is Baeza, who joins the race after Rodriguez’s scratching. He nearly defeated Journalism in their prior encounter, highlighting his potential.
Additionally, two Japanese horses, Admire Daytona and Luxor Cafe, add a fresh element to this year’s competition. Both have strong records, but questions remain about how their performances in Japan will translate to the American context.
Lastly, trainer Lonnie Briley enters the Derby with Coal Battle, an underdog who has achieved a remarkable streak leading to this moment. Though not highly favored, his story epitomizes the Derby’s unpredictable nature. My official prediction will be revealed during the NBC Sports coverage, adding the usual suspense to this betting affair.
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