About 300 miles off the coast of Oregon, the underwater volcano Axial Seamount is showing signs of renewed activity, leading to predictions of a potential eruption between now and the end of the year. Bill Chadwick, a volcanologist at Oregon State University, notes that recent monitoring has detected increased earthquake activity—over 1,000 quakes per day—and visible swelling of the volcano, indicating the accumulation of molten rock.
Axial Seamount is comparable to Hawaiian volcanoes that produce fluid lava and typically exhibit inflation between eruptions. However, the volcano poses no danger to humans due to its remote location and depth of nearly a mile underwater. Even a significant eruption would likely go unnoticed on land. During its last eruption in 2015, the volcano expelled a massive amount of lava, including flows over 450 feet thick.
Positioned at the boundary of the Pacific and Juan de Fuca tectonic plates, Axial Seamount continuously experiences volcanic activity caused by the plates’ movement. Chadwick has been studying the volcano for 30 years, with previous eruptions recorded in 1998, 2011, and 2015. His research aims to improve eruption forecasting, which is notoriously difficult due to the unpredictable nature of volcanoes.
Short-term forecasting has shown promise in providing last-minute alerts for evacuations, while longer-term predictions remain challenging. Axial Seamount serves as a unique natural laboratory for refining these forecasting models, allowing scientists to experiment without impacting human populations, thereby testing their predictive tools in a lower-stakes environment.
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